NEW YORK (Real Money) — In a recent column, I discussed a baseline case for economic growth of around 2% to 2.5%, but I emphasized that headwinds and risks could derail the economy from that course. I discussed headwinds — those we already know to be true — in another recent column, and I discussed risks, things whose outcome is uncertain.
Two risks relate to governments that are trying to balance their budgets, both here and in Europe.
One of the risks the U.S. economy faces is the “fiscal cliff” at the end of this year, when taxes are scheduled to increase and spending cuts take their place. The Congressional Budget Office noted in a report recently that if lawmakers fail to remedy the situation, growth in GDP in calendar year 2013 will be just 0.5%, and the economy will contract at a -1.3% rate in the first half of the year (in other words, a recession), and then expand at an annual rate of 2.3% in the second half. …
Follow this link: The State of Global Headwinds and Risks
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