TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Jan. 25, 2013) - Claim Post Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:CPS) (the “Company“) announces that it has signed an amendment to its agreement with Char-Crete Ltd. to acquire nine contiguous silica sand quarry leases, encompassing approximately 428 hectares (1,050 acres) (see press release dated August 27, 2013). The property is located 3km from a paved highway near Seymourville, 200km North-East of Winnipeg, Manitoba (Canada) (the “Seymourville Property“). Under the amended agreement, Claim Post paid $400,000 to Char-Crete and acquired a 51% undivided interest in the Seymourville Property. Claim Post can acquire the remaining 49% interest by payment of an additional $300,000 on or before March 31, 2013. In addition, Char Crete has agreed to grant Claim Post an option to purchase a fully permitted industrial property in Winnipeg for use as a railroad loading and storage area for a payment of $400,000 on or before February 17, 2013. If Claim Post chooses to exercise the option the purchase price of the property will be $2,700,000.
Category : Stocks
Collecting the data on jobs and unemployment is a complex and inexact science, but one thing they’re not is corrupt
Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the United States added 114,000 new jobs in the month of September and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%.
The addition of a little over 100,000 jobs would not be enough to move the unemployment rate down from 8.1%, but the 7.8% rate was based partly on a total of 873,000 jobs added. So how is that we have these two jobs figures? And why is it that the 873,000 figure is what is counted for the unemployment rate?
The charge from some quarters of the conservative blogosphere is that the figures were being manipulated by the Obama administration to lower the headline unemployment rate? But let’s look at the facts.
The Current Employment Survey is where we get the 114,000 number of new jobs created. With the CES, it’s possible that people who already have one job might have gotten a second one. It’s a survey of businesses, so we shouldn’t expect the businesses to know about what their employees do outside of each firm’s work hours. That’s why it isn’t used for the unemployment rate.
The BLS asks businesses to voluntarily take part in the survey. Some businesses will refuse. Either way, it’s important to note that not all businesses are included in the survey. Every month, therefore, the survey must be weighted to ensure that the businesses that do submit reports are representative of all businesses. This is done from statistics collected yearly from hard data reported by employees to the government.
The problem, of course, is that any survey, no matter how well done, will always have survey error. That’s the reason that we have initial reports and then revisions. The errors have two-fold causes. Not all businesses report their data even if they are part of the survey. As more businesses report and more hard data is acquired by the BLS, the bureau gets a better idea of where the true employment figures stand. We also have a yearly revision, as a new benchmark is created when all businesses, regardless of whether they take part in the survey, are required to report their employment statuses to state governments. This can be combined with a seasonal adjustment to take into account jobs added because of, say, ski resorts in the winter.
These errors are typically not large in percentage terms, but the numbers themselves can look large. The 2011 change in the benchmark of +162,000 jobs (spread over the 12-month period) was only a change of +0.1%. For the monthly survey, the margin of error is a seemingly staggering 100,000 jobs at 90% confidence. Put another way, the 114,000 new jobs could actually be 14,000 or 214,000, and either would fall within the margin of error. That’s why, when I see an August revision of 96,000 to 141,000 jobs, I don’t blink an eye.
I also wouldn’t be terribly surprised if that 114,000 turned into a net job gain of -1,000 or +230,000 in the months to come. Ninety percent confidence means that 10% of the time, we can expect the first report to fall outside the margin: it’ll happen.
The other part of the BLS report is the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is derived from the Current Population Survey. As the name implies, this is a poll of people, not businesses. Every month, 60,000 households or about 110,000 individuals are surveyed. This sample is weighted by geography, urban/rural, and industrial/farm divisions. Additionally, each person in the sample is weighted to account for differences in age, race, sex, Hispanic ethnicity, and state.
The unemployment rate is determined by the number of people looking for jobs (that is, the people not employed, but in the labor force) according to the CPS. It’s very possible to see a drop in the unemployment rate because people stop looking for jobs. We have seen that in past months, but that ‘s not what happened in September 2012.
According to the CPS, the civilian work force jumped by 418,000, with the employment level in September rising by a staggering 873,000 – the largest gain since January 2003. Meanwhile, the unemployment level dropped by 456,000 during the same period. A seasonal adjustment is then applied to this data to reach an unemployment rate.
But how is it possible that the two surveys show such vastly different results in terms of jobs gained?
First, the CPS includes people whom the CES excludes, and vice versa. The CPS includes the self-employed, private household workers (for example, nannies), unpaid family workers (for instance, the 17-year-old son working at the hardware store), and workers on leave. The CES can give a higher jobs report because an employee with two jobs can be counted twice, and because workers under the age of 16 are also included.
Second, the CPS has a far higher margin of error. The CPS is only interviewing 110,000 people out of the 240 million people potentially employed: that’s about 0.05% of the population it is trying to report on. The margin of error at 90% confidence is +/- 400,000. The CES, by contrast, is interviewing about 410,000 worksites and 140,000 businesses, when there are only about 30 million businesses in the United States.
When you take into account the differences in data collection and apply a historical adjustment, the CPS jobs gain is estimated at about 294,000 for September 2012 if adjusted to match CES criteria. That’s well within any margin of error.
Keep in mind that when we want to talk about the overall unemployment rate, we refer to the CPS because it “provides a broader picture of employment, including agriculture and the self-employed”. The unemployment rate itself only has a margin of error of +/- 0.2 of a point.
But is it possible that all of these numbers are a fraud? Can Obama really be getting at the BLS? That would require one of three things to happen.
First, Obama would to have to be in cahoots with businesses across this country to fabricate the number of employees reported all over the US – including many who reportedly didn’t like him two months ago. These businesses would also have to change their books if Romney were elected. But why the heck would a business want to promote a president if he was supposedly hurting their bottom line?
Second, people would have to be lying in the CPS. Again, this requires that people misreport their status to promote a president who is keeping them out of work. This would also imply that minorities, who typically support Obama in larger numbers, would also misreport their employment status in larger numbers, but we know that, in fact, they suffer the highest rates of unemployment.
Third, the BLS itself has been corrupted by the White House. If you think that’s plausible, I would suggest you read this piece by Eli Saslow from March of this year. The people who are compiling the jobs data are a bunch of dedicated, data-crunching nerds who live inside their own black box. These folks get the data from computers, close the blinds, and talk with no one before the jobs report is fully compiled.
There are simply no facts to support the thesis that the BLS data is cooked. Are we just not going to trust a number anymore because we don’t like it?
OTTAWA, ONTARIO–(Marketwire – Aug. 30, 2012) - Children and youth under 16 years old should not operate all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) of any size, the Canadian Paediatric Society (CPS) said in a new statement released today.
Read this article: Tighter Controls Needed on ATV Use
Conservative thinktank says government has no hope of eliminating deficit and only slim chance of cutting debt by 2015
The coalition is “most unlikely” to meet its two key economic goals before the general election, a conservative thinktank says.
In a report published on Monday, the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS) said the coalition had already given up hope of getting rid of the structural deficit by 2015 and that the chance of ensuring that public-sector debt is falling by the time of the next election is now slim.
The CPS, whose claims are rejected by the Treasury, also said the government’s problems were exacerbated by the fact that many people do not understand the difference between debt and deficit and that they will be shocked to learn that debt (the historic total owed by the nation) will be around £600bn higher in 2015 than it was in 2010 even though the deficit (annual borrowing) will be lower.
The coalition “will be vulnerable at the next general election when opposition parties could argue that the huge increase in debt is primarily the result of economic incompetence”, the CPS report said.
George Osborne, the chancellor, insists his deficit reduction target has always been a rolling mandate and that, as long as Treasury budget plans will eliminate the structural deficit over the following five years, his target is being met.
But the CPS said that when Osborne announced his target in 2010 people assumed it meant the structural deficit would go by 2015. The Treasury now accepts this deadline will not be met.
The second deadline, involving debt falling as a proportion of GDP by the end of the parliament, is firmer. “But this rule too is now unlikely to be met,” the CPS said.
The CPS commissioned a poll to find out whether people expected debt to go up or down between 2010 and 2015. Although the government has always said that debt is expected to rise over this period, 47% said they thought the government expected it to fall. Only 10% of respondents said, accurately, that the Treasury expected it to rise.
“There must be a danger for the coalition parties that this could easily be exploited during public debate in the buildup to the next election,” the CPS said.
The Treasury rejected the CPS analysis. “The independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) most recent assessment is that the government is broadly on track to meet its debt and deficit targets,” a spokesman said. “The OBR will update its forecasts in the autumn.”
The Crown Prosecution Service’s decision not to prosecute G4S or its guards for the death of Jimmy Mubenga (No prosecution of G4S guards for deportee’s death on plane, 18 July) seems perverse, not just in a moral but in a strictly legal sense.
The prosecutor says that “given Mubenga’s physiological condition” he cannot rule out that factors such as “adrenaline, muscle exhaustion or isometric exercise” might have helped cause his death because he was in an “agitated state” before he died. The general application of this extraordinary reasoning would mean that no murderer whose victim struggled could be charged, because of the adrenaline, muscle exhaustion and isometric exercise involved in resisting attack. And even if (as is implied) Mubenga was somehow uniquely vulnerable because of a pre-existing condition, every rookie lawyer learns the “eggshell skull” doctrine, which states that an assailant bears legal responsibility for a death even if his victim has a pre-existing condition making for extra vulnerability.
The failure to prosecute, and its perverse rationale, makes a mockery of criminal justice and sends out an appalling message that the deaths of migrants facing deportation attract no penal consequences. It must be reviewed urgently.
Vice-chair, Institute of Race Relations (and former barrister)
• The CPS gives the fact that there were “conflicting witness accounts” as a reason for not prosecuting the guards who restrained Jimmy Mubenga as he died. The point of a trial is to determine which accounts are true. It isn’t for the CPS to exercise a gambler’s judgment on the prospects of their cronies in the law-enforcement business being guilty of something. It is for a judge and jury.
Doreen Lawrence complains of the lack of independence in the Independent Police Complaints Commission (Complaints commission failing, says campaigner, 18 July). Similarly, the CPS works hand in glove with the likes of the police and Border Agency every day and is equally enthusiastic about declaring them free of taint without the inconvenience of a fair and public trial. In this case it thinks it’s done its bit for justice by sending G4S a stiff letter. With the rampant expansion of privatised policing, these toothless watchdogs need to be reformed: truly independent and committed to making accountability real.
Mary Pimm and Nik Wood
• Can we pause to compare the recent headline-dominating trial over two footballers being rude to each other with the CPS decision not to prosecute over the death of Jimmy Mubenga? I can’t believe this is a decision taken in good faith.
Not for the first time in this kind of case, the CPS effectively argue that they can’t prosecute unless they can guarantee conviction. Do they really need to be told that, quite apart from the need for justice for the victim and his family to be seen to be done, there is a huge public interest in the actions of these guards, and of the culture, policy and procedures within which they were operating, being properly tested against the law, and shown to be fully subject to it. The men themselves, and their employer G4S, should of course share that interest.
It’s the job of the courts, not the CPS, to determine guilt and innocence in such a case.
Weston Longville, Norfolk
NORTON, MA–(Marketwire – Mar 28, 2012) – CPS Technologies Corporation (
Read more from the original source: CPS Technologies Corporation Announces 2011 Results