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Chase Bank Limits Cash Withdrawals, Bans International... Before you read this report, remember to sign up to http://pennystockpaycheck.com for 100% free stock alerts Chase Bank has moved to limit cash withdrawals while banning business customers from sending...

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Richemont chairman Johann Rupert to take 'grey gap... Billionaire 62-year-old to take 12 months off from Cartier and Montblanc luxury goods groupRichemont's chairman and founder Johann Rupert is to take a year off from September, leaving management of the...

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Cambodia: aftermath of fatal shoe factory collapse... Workers clear rubble following the collapse of a shoe factory in Kampong Speu, Cambodia, on Thursday

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Spate of recent shock departures by 50-something CEOs While the rising financial rewards of running a modern multinational have been well publicised, executive recruiters say the pressures of the job have also been ratcheted upOn approaching his 60th birthday...

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UK Uncut loses legal challenge over Goldman Sachs tax... While judge agreed the deal was 'not a glorious episode in the history of the Revenue', he ruled it was not unlawfulCampaign group UK Uncut Legal Action has lost its high court challenge over the legality...

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HSBC may cut up to 14,000 more jobs

Category : Business

HSBC says it may cut an additional 14,000 jobs globally as part of its three-year restructuring plan to reduce costs.

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UK economy picking up, surveys suggest

Category : Business

CBI sees signs of rising business confidence, while Lloyds data shows growth in seven of England’s nine regions

Britain is starting to see green shoots of recovery as business activity picks up, companies continue to hire new staff and consumers start to spend again.

A series of surveys published on Monday suggest the UK is on the road to recovery after its double-dip recession, providing a boost for chancellor George Osborne.

Business lobby group the CBI expects the economy to grow by 1% this year and 2% in 2014. That contrasts with the IMF, which recently slashed its growth forecast for the UK from 1% to 0.7%, and suggested Osborne should rethink his austerity programme.

The CBI has consistently supported the chancellor on austerity, although it has called for more measures to boost growth. John Cridland, director general of the CBI, said on Monday: “The UK economy is moving from flat to growth.”

But he warned that the country continues to face big challenges. “Although recent data suggests rising business confidence, the economic climate remains tough, hampering demand here and overseas. Meanwhile, consumers remain under pressure, as inflation continues to outstrip wage growth.”

In April, business activity grew at its fastest rate in eight months, according to Lloyds TSB’s purchasing managers’ index. The PMI – which is based on data from 1,200 manufacturing and services companies – came in at 52.2 in April, up from 51.6 in March, moving further above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

The survey showed growth in seven of England’s nine regions, led by Yorkshire & Humber with a reading of 55.7. Only the West Midlands and the North East reported a slight reduction in business activity, hit by a weaker performance of the manufacturing sector and spending in those regions.

Elsewhere, it seems Britons are going out more and parting with their cash, cheered by the warm weather. Barclaycard said spending rose 3.6% last month compared with April last year, led by 21% growth in spending on cinema and theatre tickets. Restaurants also benefited with an 11% increase in spending, as did DIY stores, up 8.5%. Growth in spending online continued to outstrip the high street, up 11.7% on last year, compared with just 1.7% in bricks and mortar shops.

Valerie Soranno Keating, chief executive of Barclaycard, said: “Although economic data is generally mixed, this is the first time since 2011 that we’ve seen growth above 2% for three consecutive months, which may suggest a more sustained improvement in sentiment.”

A forward-looking survey of the jobs market suggests it too is looking healthy, with growth in employment set to continue in the second quarter. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said more employers are expecting to increase headcount than those who intend to cut jobs, with a balance of +9, up from +5 for the previous quarter.

Gerwyn Davies, CIPD labour market adviser said: “Even though last month’s official figures showed a slight dip in the level of employment, these findings suggest that further employment growth is possible.”

But he notes that the number of jobs being created may fail to keep pace with the population growth, meaning unemployment could still rise.

Amplats planning 6,000 job cuts

Category : Business, World News

Anglo American Platinum plans to cut 6,000 jobs in South Africa after its profits were affected by violent labour strikes last year.

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Societe Generale mulls job cuts

Category : Business

France’s second biggest bank, Societe Generale, tells CNBC it is considering cutting up to 700 jobs as it reports a 50% fall in first-quarter earnings.

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Crown Post Office staff go on strike

Category : Business

Staff at some of the UK’s largest post offices are taking industrial action in a growing dispute over closures, franchising, jobs and pay.

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How good is ADP at forecasting the monthly BLS jobs reports? | Harry J Enten

Category : Business

With official jobs data seen as a key economic metric, no wonder other agencies second-guess them. But ‘guess’ is about right

The government reported 165,000 new jobs created according April’s nonfarm payroll numbers (176,000 in total in the private sector) – a pleasant surprise to most economists, who were anticipating fewer. Part of the reason that expectations were off was because the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) jobs report predicted that only 119,000 would be created, an apparent error of 57,000. Why is this discrepancy a big deal?

Jobs reports used to be exciting only for economists and stockbrokers, but since the election season, every political junkie and their dog seems to have taken an interest. People recognize that the economy plays a vital role in deciding votes; these reports, therefore, offer a vital clue to predicting the politicians’ election chances. So, now we have both the economic and political class yearning for 8.30am on the first Friday of the month, all to learn about the jobs numbers.

But as in so many arenas in America, people can’t wait to see what happens. They race to get the answer as quickly as they can, picking up on whatever clues they deem fit. Enter the ADP jobs report, a jobs survey released two days before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) government report. Many use the ADP to predict the BLS, but past ADP surveys have sometimes been far off actual BLS results. As Steven Russolillo noted in September, “some months, it’s spot on; others it’s wildly off base.”

The ADP, hoping to make its data more accurate, made some major changes for its October 2012 report. That month, the ADP started using ADP payroll data, BLS employment data, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Aruoba-Diebold-Scott Business Conditions Index. As a result, ADP surveyed 62,000 more clients than previously, 2 million more employees, and two more company-size classes and industries. They brought on Moody’s Analytics to replace Macroeconomic Advisers for processing data. To put it mildly, these are not small changes.

Have the adjustments brought ADP any closer to solving the monthly jobs mystery?

To answer this question, I’ve compared ADP forecasts of the past seven months with the same seven-month period last year, and looked at the ADP’s accuracy in predicting final BLS numbers. The BLS produces an initial, second, and final report as it calculates more data, and the data between reports can differ greatly. The ADP wants to land as close as possible to the BLS’s final report, though most attention is usually paid to the initial report.

The past seven months have seen an average difference between the ADP and initial BLS report of 42,286 jobs. (You can see all the data here.) Some months, such as October and November 2012, had errors of under 30,000 jobs, while March and April 2013 saw errors of 57,000 or greater. No month had an initial error of less than 26,000; the error in margin ends up within +/-19,000 of 45,000.

Compared to the same time last year, the average error has, in fact, diminished. Last year, ADP was off by an average error of 55,429 jobs, which is 13,143 jobs greater than their more recent average. This difference, however, is not statistically significant, due to a small sample size (seven observations) and the fact that the old ADP results could sometimes be very accurate.

Last year, three months under the old methods had errors of 17,000 or less, compared to the initial BLS report – far more accurate than any month per the new ADP. The problem for the old ADP was that four months last year had errors of 66,000 or greater, which less accurate than all seven months of the new ADP.

In that light, the new ADP does look better than the old. When it comes to their forecasts and the initial jobs report, we still haven’t seen an error so wrong it makes your eyes pop out. Of course, we haven’t seen stunning accuracy either.

The BLS’s final jobs report, however – what ADP should supposedly be best at predicting – apparently confounds ADP. We see zero consistency in their results. Four out of six final reports (or second report for March 2013, since we don’t have the final one yet) have had errors of 28,000 or less. Two final reports, December 2012 and March 2013, have been within 4,000. November 2012 and February 2013, though, have seen errors of over 120,000 jobs! The old ADP, by comparison, had its biggest miss last year, in January 2012, at 107,000 jobs.

The average error of the new ADP on final BLS reports has been 51,167 jobs, which is actually worse than the ADP’s error on initial BLS reports. It’s better than the average error of 58,333 from last year, but it’s not better by a statistically significant amount.

When you put it all together, I can’t really say that ADP has done better with its new methodology than it did with its old. There are some signs that the changes have made it more accurate – perhaps those huge misses of November 2012 and February 2013 will turn out to be anomalies – but we’ll need a larger sample size to know for sure. But at this point, it looks as likely as ever that the ADP numbers will be way off-the-mark measured against the BLS’s final reports.

The smart bet right now? Have a little patience and wait for the actual government statistics.

VIDEO: Parliament protest amid Portuguese cuts

Category : World News

Portugal is planning to cut 30,000 civil service jobs and to raise the retirement age by one year to 66 as it tries to meet the terms of a bailout.

Continued here: VIDEO: Parliament protest amid Portuguese cuts

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Jobs to go in Nationwide shake-up

Category : World News

A total of 500 jobs are expected to go as Nationwide integrates three regional building societies into its main operations.

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Portugal to cut civil service jobs

Category : Business

Portugal plans to cut 30,000 civil service jobs and raise the retirement age to 66 as it tries to meet bailout conditions, the prime minister says.

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Dow tops 15,000 on jobs report

Category : Business, Stocks

Stocks surged after the U.S. government announced 165,000 jobs were added in April and the unemployment rate ticked lower.

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